Nifty - Correction On The Cards

Nifty (CMP: 6237.05) - The action formed a strong negative candle with high volume which signifies bulls are loosing their momentum & bears are in active. Technically, the index has given trend line breakdown with negative candle as well as on the hourly chart index is forming lower top lower bottom set-up which indicates correction on the cards. Now the Index is heading towards 6200 – 6140 – 6100 levels which is cluster support. On the Elliott wave perspective “Irregular Flat” pattern is progress & it could end at 6100 – 6050 level. Index is trading below 20 & 40 hourly EMA i.e. 6283 & 6277 respectively. The daily & hourly oscillator has given negative crossover, which signs that continuation of bearishness.

Banking, Auto and Metal segment looks weak & we could expect for further weakness. Bank Nifty support is placed at 11650 - 11450. Resistance is placed at 11750 – 11870. Overall, bearish trend is progress. Unless violation of 6300 the index could fall towards 6200 – 6140 - 6100 levels. Fresh traders can sell at CMP with a stop loss of 6300 for the minimum target of 6150 – 6140.

Tech Mahindra - Follow Up

I did a post on Tech Mahindra in 29th July 2013, Click here to read the old post. I mentioned that Tech Mahindra is heading towards 1470 - 1700 levels. Recently high made 1763. Traders can book partial profit  at CMP (1715) or revise stop loss to 1600 and hold for the next target of 1950 - 2000 levels.

 

Infotec Ent - Follow Up

I did a post on Infotec Ent in 4th December 2013, Click here to read the old post. I mentioned that Infotec Ent is heading towards 285 - 295 levels. Recently high made 299. Traders can book partial profit  at CMP (293) or revise stop loss to 285. 

Eveready - Follow Up

I did a post on Eveready in 21st November 2013, Click here to read the old post. I mentioned that Eveready is heading towards 32 - 33 levels. Recently high made 35.7. Traders can book partial profit  at CMP (34.55) or revise stop loss to 33. 

Infotec Ent - Ball Is In Bull's Court

Infotec Ent (CMP: 275.05) - is displaying a positive outlook on the daily chart. The stock has given trend line break out with strong positive candle on the hourly chart which signs bulls are in active. On the daily chart the stock has tested rising trend line support level as well as 20 Day EMA and then bounced from there which indicates trend remains up. Now the stock is heading towards 285 - 295 levels which is cluster resistance level. The strong support level placed at 263. On the daily chart as well as hourly chart RSI has given positive crossover which signs strength.

Recommendation: Traders can buy at CMP or buy on dips to 273 - 269 levels with a stop loss of 263 (Closing basis) for target of 285 - 295 levels.

Renuka Sugar - Bounced From Cluster Support

Renuka Sugar (CMP: 21.2) - is displaying a positive outlook on the daily chart. The stock has fallen sharply from the intermediate top (24.5) and now it has taken the support of 19.5 level. The price has tested the  cluster support as well as 100 Day EMA & bounced from there with strong positive candle which indicates bulls are in momentum. The stock has given bullish triangle break out on the hourly chart. The stock is trading above 20/40 EMA which shows positive sign. Now the stock is heading towards 22.5 – 23.5 levels which is cluster resistance level. The strong support level placed at 19.9.     On the daily chart RSI has given positive crossover which signs strength.

                       

Recommendation: Traders can buy at CMP or buy on dips to 20.95 – 20.5 level with a stop loss of 19.9 (Closing basis) for target of 22.5 – 23.5 levels.

Nifty - Stays In Consolidation Mode

Nifty (CMP: 6201.85) - The action formed an indecisive candle with less volume which signifies tug of war between bulls and bears / lack of momentum. Technically, index has tested pitch fork upper line but doesn’t break that line and then finally closed below that line with small reversal candle which indicates bulls are loosing their momentum. For the day support at 6140 is crucial; as long as it holds the index could consolidate between 6140 – 6230 levels. While if the support at 6140 is breached, the index could correct lower towards 5970 – 5850 levels. Further bullish momentum is only above 6230 level. Index is trading above 20/40 hourly EMA. The daily oscillator placed in neutral, but hourly oscillator has given negative crossover which suggests that minor correction can be seen.

Oil & Gas segment look steady for further upside. Bank Nifty support is placed at 11250 – 11125. Resistance is placed at 11400 – 11500. Overall, volatility is likely to remain. The trend remains up even though one should look at some profit booking at higher levels. 

DJIA - Continuation Of Bullish Momentum

DJIA (CMP: 16086.4) - is showing bullish outlook in the medium term perspective.

The above chart is not exactly correlating with the S&P 500, But in the last few years directional moments are similar in direction. After the top out at October, 2007 both the charts are more similar in nature.

The price is forming higher top higher bottom set-up which indicates the bulls are continuing their momentum. The index is moving within the rising channel line (Blue line) which is a vital bullish setup. This bullish setup is intact from March, 2009. Within the broader channel; price has found new directional channel (Red dotted line).  The index is sustaining above all key moving averages. Short term key moving average of 50 Week EMA is placed at 14877 levels.

Recently the price has breached the “Running triangle” (Blue Dotted) which is a significant bullish indication for in the short term and bulls could continue towards the cluster resistance of 16500 – 17000 levels (Two channels upper lines). Key bottom is placed at 14700 which is the end “wave e” leg in the running triangle. The weekly oscillators are placed in overbought zone.

Conclusion: Unless violation of 14700, the bulls could continue the rally towards the upper resistance line of both the channel lines; the levels are placed around 16500 – 17000 levels. 

S&P 500 - Heading Towards 1900 - 1950

The S&P 500 (CMP: 1805.38) - The index is showing bullish outlook in the medium term perspective.

The price is forming higher top higher bottom set-up which indicates the bulls are continuing their momentum. After the breach of earlier lifetime high of 1576 the index has moved into the new bullish territory and moving with sturdy bullish stance. In the past when the index has made the new lifetime high on October 11, 2007 but the price has not sustained in the higher levels. Instead of that it started falling and made the lower bottom at 666 levels (Earlier key bottom at 768).

In the present scenario, Price has sustained and heading towards the north substantially.

Technically, the index is moving within the rising channel line (marked dotted blue line) which is a vital bullish setup. Price is sustaining above all key moving averages and crossover of 20 – 40 EMA also placed with positive bias. Short term key moving average of 21 Week EMA is placed at 1718 levels.

The change of polarity line (Gary line) could act as support for the bulls, and the level is placed around 1725. This level approximately coincides with 21 Day EMA.  The weekly oscillators are placed in overbought zone.

Conclusion: Unless violation of 1725/1718 levels, the bulls could continue to rally towards the upper resistance line of the medium term pitchfork setup; the levels is placed around 1900 – 1950 levels.

DAX - The Ball Is In Bull's Court

DAX  (CMP: 9405.3) - The index chart shows the bullish outlook for the Medium term perspective.

On the Elliott Wave Perspective, the index is forming an “Impulse pattern” from the low witnessed at 2188 on March,2003. Internals of impulse pattern could be labeled as i-ii-iii-iv-v. In which index has completed the “wave i & ii”. Now “wave iii” is in the progress and it has moved near to the 100% projection levels “wave i” & “wave ii”. On sustained rise and close above 100% levels (9570) the index could continue the rally to next key projection level of 11000 mark which is 123.6% of “wave i” & “wave ii”.

Index has formed higher top higher bottom in the swings which indicates that the present rise is sturdy and it could continue further in the medium term perspective. The minor rising channel setup (Dotted Blue Line) adds strength to the bulls.

Index is trading above 13 Month EMA & acted as vital support which is placed at 8219.  The monthly oscillators are placed in positive zone.

Conclusion: The index is heading towards 9570 then 11000 levels. Key support is placed at 8219.

Hang Seng - Heading Towards 24990 - 25500

Hang Seng (CMP: 23881.2) - The chart shows the bullish outlook for short to medium term perspective.

Multiyear triangle breakout has been witnessed on weekly chart which has taken the index into new medium term bullish territory.

In addition to this “Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern” breakout has been witnessed which is a significant bullish reversal pattern. This pattern’s target is placed around 28000 levels which is 100% level of head. Minimum 60% move we rely in the target side which approximately comes around 24990 – 25500. This level is also confluence with the earlier swing witnessed on November,2010.

Price is forming higher top higher bottom formations on weekly charts; this adds strength to our bullish stance.  Index is trading above key moving averages on the weekly chart. 50 Week EMA is placed at 22360.

Support level is placed at 22360 – 21465. The weekly oscillators are placed in positive mode.

Conclusion: The index is heading toward the levels of 24990 – 25500. Key support level is 21465.

Nikkei - Cluster Resistance Placed @ 16000 - 16500

Nifty - Upside Capped 6300 - 6357 Zone

Nifty (CMP: 6176.1) - The above chart shows the bullish outlook for the short to medium term perspective.

The index has bounced from the cluster support of 5970 levels.  Price has formed sort of double bottom at the level of 5970 levels.  The level is confluence with 21 WEMA and median level of pitchfork (Blue line).

Price is forming higher top higher bottom set-up on weekly charts which is a sign of bullish stance.  In the perspective of Elliott wave theory “Flat Pattern” (a-b-c) is progressing. “Wave a” has ended at 5970 level and now we are in “wave b” which is sub-divided into three wave structure. “Wave b” could completed at around 6260 – 6300 – 6357 levels. After completion of “wave b”, then “wave c” will open for the downside target of 5970 – 5850 levels.

From the recent price developments and formations indicates that the index is heading towards lifetime highs of 6357 levels. Before breaking the life time high, we may see a correction. There is very less chances to break the life time high. So, Traders can use the rise as a book profit opportunity & wait for fresh momentum. The weekly oscillators are placed in positive mode.

Conclusion: The trend remains up & heading towards 6260 – 6300 levels. Long traders can book profit at 6260 – 6300 – 6357 levels or revise stop loss to 6120 level & hold. Traders can initiate short positions at higher levels.

Gold - Heading Towards Upper Channel Line

Gold (CMP: $1251.9) -  is showing bearish outlook for the short term and bullish outlook for the medium term perspective.

Gold is in the progress of  major “wave b/x” , “wave a/w” has ended at $1180 on june,28.

The major “wave b/x” is three wave structure which can be “Flat pattern or Double Combination pattern”. Intermediate “wave b/x” has retraced more than 61.8% retracement level of intermediate “wave a/w”. Now wave b/x could completed around $1200 - $1180 levels which is sub-divided into (a-b-c) zig zag pattern. After the completion of intermediate “wave b/x” then “wave c/y” could rise toward $1433 (Top of minor “wave a/w”) to $1500 or more.

In the short term the price is moving within the smaller downward sloping channel setup (Marked dotted blue line) which is a bearish sign for gold. The price is forming a lower top lower bottom on the weekly chart, which adds move strength to our bearish stance.  In addition weekly oscillators are placed in favor of bears.

Conclusion: Gold could fall towards $1200 - $1180 levels. After tested $1200 - $1180 levels, it will head towards $1433 – $1500 in medium term perspective. 

Crude Oil - Correction Could Compet $90 - $88 Zone

Crude Oil (CMP: $92.7) - is showing bullish outlook for the short-term perspective.

The price has almost reached the support zone. It has moving in contracting manner in the last couple of years. The full price development from May 2010 to till date is a sort of symmetrical triangle in which one more rising leg is unfolds.

In the short term the price is moving within the smaller downward sloping channel setup (Marked dotted blue line), which is a bearish sign for crude. Once the channel is breached then we may see sharp up move and the price would start retracing the last falling leg. Breakout above 95 could confirm the rising leg. The golden retracement levels of 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% are placed at 99.5 – 102 – 104.5 levels respectively.

The standard Bollinger band study is suggests that crude could bottom out soon. The multi-month (Blue Line) also suggests that crude could resume the uptrend after testing 90 – 88 levels. This level is confluence with the trend line support.

200 Week EMA is placed around 91.45. The weekly oscillators are placed in negative zone.

Conclusion: Cluster support level placed at $90 – $88 band. Once it has tested $90 - $88 levels, then crude oil would resume the pullback towards $99.5. Investors can use this dips as a buying opportunities.

USDINR - Expect Pullback Towards $63.9 - $64.85

USDINR (CMP: 62.3) -  pair is showing bullish outlook for short to medium term perspective.

The price is forming higher top higher bottom set-up on weekly chart which indicates that the odds are in favor of USD. Last two weeks the pair has formed Doji/Hammer pattern which is a significant bullish reversal pattern. This pattern holds the USD and adding the strength to the USD for short term.

From the median line support of $60.5 the pair has turned to bullish territory and started retracing the last falling leg. The golden retracement levels of 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% which are placed at $63.90 – $64.85 – $65.81 levels respectively. The pair has already tested the 38.2% levels of the last falling leg. Unless violation of $60.5 levels, the bullish bias could continue toward 50% & 61.8% retracement levels of last falling leg.

The price structure is looks like a Head & shoulder pattern on weekly chart, now the pair is in the right shoulder of the pattern. The neckline is placed at $60.5 level.  But the confirmation comes only fall below $60.5 level.

The pair is trading above 21 Week EMA which is placed at $61.39 levels.  In addition the weekly RSI is holds the key trend line along with the head and shoulder pattern’s neckline on the price.

Conclusion: The pair is heading toward $63.90 – $64.85 – $65.81 levels for the cluster support level of $60.5. Investors can use the dips as a buying opportunity.

EURUSD - Heading Towards 1.41 - 1.43

AUDUSD - Minor Correction Unfolding 0.89 - 0.88

Dollar Index - Pullback On The Cards

Dollar Index (CMP: 80.6) -  is showing mildly bearish then bullish outlook for the short-term perspective.

The price is moving within the multi month channel setup and the price has reacted exactly to the channel lines in the past (marked with Arrows). Falling wedge pattern breakout has been witnessed few days back, which is a significant bullish trigger. One major corrective leg has ended with falling wedge pattern. Now the Dollar index is in fresh bullish leg. The price has started retracing the earlier fall from the high of 84.83 to the low of 79.13. Golden retracement levels of 38.2% - 50% and 61.8% are placed at 81.33 – 82 and 82.7 levels respectively. 

The price has already retraced slightly more than 38.2% retracement level of last leg which was marked as “wave a”. Now Dollar INDEX is in the middle of “wave b”. The corrective leg could end any where from CMP to 80 levels. Once the falling leg completes then price would head toward 50% & 61.8% retracement levels placed at 82 – 82.7 levels.

Conclusion: US Dollar Index could correct mildly then it will rise towards 82 – 82.7 levels later on. 

US 10 YR Treasury - Bounced From Support

Colgate Palmolive - Buy

Nifty - On The Way To 6260 - 6300

Nifty (CMP: 6176.1) - The Nifty Traded in the range between 6183 - 6103. The Nifty gain 84.25 points over the day to close out at 6176.1. Yesterday as the index opened minor gap up and risen continuously & made an intraday high of 6183 where it found cluster support. Finally index closed near to the day’s high. In last report we have mentioned that If the resistance level of 6130 breaks, then index could travel towards 6190 – 6210 levels and that played out perfectly &High made 6183.

The action formed a strong bullish candle with decent volume which signifies bulls are in active. Technically, on the hourly the index has given bullish triangle break out with positive candle which adds strength to bullish stance. Now the index is heading towards 6260 – 6300 levels which is cluster resistance levels. Traders can use this rise as book profit opportunity. Index is trading above 20/40 Day EMA. The daily & hourly oscillator has given positive crossover which suggests that index could rise towards historical high.

The US markets look steady for further upside. Bank Nifty support is placed at 11150 – 11030 level. Resistance is placed at 11300 – 11440 level. Bank Nifty is heading towards 11440 – 11730 levels. Overall, the index remains up and it’s likely to rise towards 6260 – 6300 levels. Traders can book profit at those levels or revise stop loss to 6120.